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Indian stocks treading cautiously as Lok Sabha results near

May 28, 2024 10:34 AM

New Delhi : After a stellar rally over the past few weeks, markets faced some resistance over the past couple of sessions. At Tuesday opening bell, indices Sensex and Nifty traded marginally higher with a downside bias.
At the time of filing this report, Sensex and Nifty were largely steady.

It is now expected that further up moves will depend on the cues from the various macroeconomic data that are scheduled later during the week, Q4 India GDP and US inflation data.

On Monday, the benchmark indices ended marginally lower. The decline could be partly attributable to investors booking profit at higher levels to avoid any potential risks in the market ahead of the Lok Sabha election results, said Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Financial Services.

"investors start(ed) booking profit at higher levels to avoid any knee jerk reaction in the market ahead of the election result. Better earnings growth, the expectation of a revival in private capex, and a moderation in FIIs selling intensity are the key positive triggers in the market," Nair said.

"The release of India's Q4 GDP and US inflation figures this week will also influence investors to get a direction in the near term," Nair said.

India's GDP grew at a massive 8.4 per cent during the October-December quarter of the financial year 2023-24, and the country continued to remain the fastest-growing major economy. India's economy grew 7.2 per cent in 2022-23 and 8.7 per cent in 2021-22, respectively.

Lately, barring one odd session, Indian stock indices continued their rally, reaching fresh lifetime highs, tracking strong global market cues, hopes of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's comfortable return to office, besides other strong macroeconomic fundamentals.

With the six phases of elections now behind us, it is widely expected by investors that the Narendra Modi-led government will come back to office with a comfortable margin for his third term. This also likely triggered fresh stock buying.
In the past two weeks, Sensex jumped over 3,600 points, on a cumulative basis.

Overseas investors have been remaining net sellers of Indian equities for the past several sessions. Interestingly, domestic institutional investors during the same period stayed net buyers, largely making up for the outflows by the foreign investors.
Going ahead, the market will also actively track exit poll prediction.

"As we approach the election results a bit of nervousness is visible in the market. The sharp correction in Nifty in the afternoon yesterday indicates this nervousness. This uncertainty-led nervousness is likely to continue," said VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Financial Services.

"A high possibility is the market getting a clue of the election results earlier than June 4th. This can happen any time and can trigger a big move in the market," said Vijayakumar.

"We may see further consolidation in the index ahead, so participants should focus on careful stock selection and effective trade management," said Ajit Mishra - SVP, Research, Religare Broking.

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